What aspect of coral ecosystems is most likely influenced by climate change according to models?

The influence of climate change on coral ecosystems is most prominently seen in water temperature and chemistry. Rising sea temperatures, primarily through global warming, have been shown to lead to coral bleaching, a phenomenon where corals expel the symbiotic algae (zooxanthellae) living within their tissues. This not only affects the health of the corals but can also impact their coloration and overall resilience to diseases.

Additionally, climate change affects the chemistry of ocean waters. Increased levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere lead to higher concentrations of CO2 in seawater, resulting in ocean acidification. This change in chemistry interferes with the ability of corals to calcify, which is crucial for their growth and structural integrity.

While aspects such as coral color patterns, predation rates, and tourism trends may be indirectly influenced by the changes in temperature and chemistry, the direct impacts of climate change are most clearly observed in these fundamental environmental conditions.